As voters prepare for the 2026 midterm elections, many are seeking clarity on how to interpret political polls, which races to watch, and what the outcomes could mean for the future. In a recent collaboration with the NPR Politics Podcast, NPR's political correspondents responded to listener questions on these topics and more.
Domenico Montanaro, NPR senior political editor and correspondent, addressed concerns about polling accuracy. He acknowledged that while national polls have generally performed well in horse-race coverage, state-level surveys have seen issues, including some fake polls. Montanaro emphasized the importance of evaluating pollster quality, noting that the decline of local journalism has reduced funding for rigorous polling at the state level. He also explained that polls have margins of error—typically plus or minus 3 to 4 percentage points—which means results are a range, not a precise snapshot. Montanaro advised that polls are just one tool and should be combined with historical context, on-the-ground reporting, and campaign coverage.
When asked whether they prefer covering midterms or presidential elections, the correspondents offered varied perspectives. Montanaro noted that midterms feature unique down-ballot races and quirky candidates that might be overshadowed in presidential years. Sam Gringlas, NPR congressional reporter, said that midterm reporting allows for more intimate interactions with candidates, citing this year's coverage at an antique shop, a farmer's market, a UAW picnic, a family farm, and a smokejumper-themed brewery. Tamara Keith, NPR senior political correspondent, expressed appreciation for all elections but highlighted that midterms offer more engaged voter interviews due to higher turnout.
Keith also shared a race she is watching out of personal curiosity: Nevada's 2nd Congressional District. She described the contest as "totally messy," with the Republican nominee facing baggage and the Democratic nominee, a former Miss Nevada turned state legislator, running a solid campaign. The retiring Republican congressman has criticized the GOP nominee and announced he voted for a Libertarian. Keith noted that the Republican is still favored to win but said she is watching closely to see how the drama ends.
Ashley Lopez, NPR political correspondent, highlighted several redistricting ballot measures across the country. In Maryland, voters will consider a constitutional amendment that would allow Democrats to add one more seat; Lopez noted it might not pass despite the state's Democratic lean. Colorado has a measure that would make it harder for the legislature to mid-decade redistrict, and Missouri voters will weigh a question on congressional redistricting that could help Republicans flip a seat. Alaska voters will again consider their primary system and ranked choice voting, which Lopez said has been a close contest but has been upheld by voters.
Montanaro added that he is paying close attention to Senate races in Michigan and Texas, as well as House races in South Florida and South Texas, where Latino voter behavior could be telling. He also mentioned California's wealth tax ballot initiative, which has seen tens of millions of dollars spent, and the Nevada governor's race between Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo and Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford. Montanaro noted that Ford has had to address past legal troubles, and the outcome will reveal how voters weigh personal history against the national political climate.
Regarding the impact of a Democratic takeover of Congress, Montanaro explained that midterms typically serve as a check on the president's party. With only about 10% of congressional districts competitive, legislation would likely stall without compromise. He noted that bipartisan issues like artificial intelligence guardrails could see progress, but the biggest effect would be increased investigations and oversight of the administration. Montanaro cautioned that Democrats might face political risks if they pursue impeachment, referencing the Republican experience with Clinton impeachment in the late 1990s. He also pointed out that only twice since World War II has the president's party gained seats in a midterm—in 1998 and 2002.
On the question of whether political debates are dead, Montanaro argued they remain vital. He acknowledged that incumbents are often reluctant to debate challengers, but said debates provide a platform for voters to see candidates pressed on their policies and vulnerabilities. He predicted that with a potentially record number of candidates in the upcoming presidential election, there will be many debates.
Finally, Montanaro discussed indicators from the midterms that could signal trends for 2028. He mentioned Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff's margin as a potential sign of his presidential prospects, and noted that governors like J.B. Pritzker of Illinois, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, and Wes Moore of Maryland—all heavily favored for reelection—may use their victory speeches to hint at national ambitions. He also said the performance of progressive and democratic socialist candidates compared to moderates could shape the 2028 Democratic primary, and how Republicans position themselves post-Trump will be telling. However, he cautioned against reading too much into midterm results for 2028, as the electorates are very different.
The correspondents thanked listeners Courtney, Nathaneal, Chad, Erin, Renata, and Tyson for their questions.
