National Weather Service monitoring developing coastal storm that could affect Atlantic and Cape May counties Thursday night through Friday
SOUTH JERSEY — A potentially powerful coastal storm could develop into a nor'easter late next week, bringing heavy rain, gusty winds and possible tidal flooding to Atlantic and Cape May counties, according to the National Weather Service.
Forecasters at the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly are monitoring a developing weather system that could affect the region from Thursday night, November 12, through Friday night, November 13.
In its Saturday evening forecast discussion, the National Weather Service identified a potentially strong coastal storm as one of its primary concerns for the coming week.
While confidence is increasing that a storm system will develop, meteorologists caution that its exact track, intensity and potential impacts remain uncertain.
For South Jersey's coastal communities, the biggest concerns are the possibility of strong winds, periods of significant rainfall and tidal flooding.
Storm Track Will Determine Coastal Impacts
According to the National Weather Service, a significant disturbance in the upper atmosphere is expected to develop across the eastern United States late next week.
The system could produce an initial area of low pressure near the Ohio Valley, followed by the development of a second low-pressure system near the northern Mid-Atlantic coast.
That secondary system could strengthen into a nor'easter as it moves through the region.
The storm's eventual path will determine whether Atlantic and Cape May counties experience prolonged onshore winds, heavy rainfall or a less significant weather event.
Forecasters say a storm tracking directly over South Jersey could produce a shorter period of strong onshore winds, potentially limiting coastal flooding.
However, a storm that develops and strengthens offshore could create a longer period of winds pushing ocean water toward the coastline.
That scenario would increase concerns about tidal flooding in low-lying communities and along vulnerable sections of the Jersey Shore.
The National Weather Service emphasized Saturday that considerable uncertainty remains about the storm's development and coastal impacts.
Coastal Flooding a Concern for Vulnerable Communities
The possibility of another coastal storm is particularly important for communities that regularly experience tidal flooding, including Atlantic City, Ventnor, Margate, Longport, Brigantine, Ocean City, Sea Isle City, Avalon, Stone Harbor and the Wildwoods.
Back-bay neighborhoods, waterfront roads and low-lying areas could be especially vulnerable if the storm produces sustained onshore winds during high-tide cycles.
However, meteorologists have not yet established how much coastal flooding, if any, the system might produce.
The storm could also generate rough surf and beach erosion, depending on its strength and duration.
Those possibilities are significant for communities still addressing beach erosion and storm damage from earlier coastal weather events.
A powerful late-September nor'easter caused substantial coastal flooding, beach erosion and damage along portions of the New Jersey shoreline.
That storm demonstrated how prolonged onshore winds can create problems even in communities accustomed to seasonal coastal storms.
There is currently insufficient information to determine whether next week's developing system could produce comparable conditions.
Rain More Likely Than Snow Along the Coast
Although colder air is expected to accompany the developing storm, significant snowfall appears unlikely across Atlantic and Cape May counties.
Forecasters indicate that the greatest potential for snow or a rain-snow mixture would be farther inland, particularly across western and northwestern portions of the region.
The federal Weather Prediction Center has placed the probability of at least one inch of snow across South Jersey at less than 10 percent during the period from Thursday evening through Saturday evening.
Along the immediate coast, rain is the more likely precipitation type.
A substantial amount of rainfall is possible, although meteorologists have not yet established reliable precipitation totals.
The amount of rain will depend heavily on where the coastal low-pressure system develops and how quickly it moves.
Cooler Weather Expected Behind the Storm
The developing system is also expected to bring a noticeable change in temperatures.
Before the potential storm arrives, South Jersey will experience relatively seasonable conditions.
Sunday is expected to be partly sunny, with temperatures generally reaching the lower 60s and west winds occasionally gusting to around 20 mph.
Breezy conditions are expected to continue into Monday, with another period of gusty winds possible.
Temperatures are expected to remain relatively mild through the middle of the week before colder air moves into the region.
By Friday, temperatures could fall considerably, with below-normal conditions potentially continuing into the following weekend.
What Residents Should Watch
For now, the National Weather Service has not established specific coastal flooding levels, rainfall totals or maximum wind gusts for the potential storm.
Those details should become clearer as the system approaches and computer forecast models develop a more consistent picture of its track.
Residents of flood-prone communities should monitor forecasts throughout the week, particularly if they live near back bays, tidal waterways or streets that frequently flood during coastal storms.
Boaters and marine operators should also pay attention to developing forecasts because strong winds and rough seas could affect conditions along the coast and in Delaware Bay.
The National Weather Service will continue evaluating the potential storm and updating its forecasts as new information becomes available.
For now, the message from forecasters is that a potentially significant coastal storm is possible late next week, but it is too early to determine whether South Jersey will experience serious impacts.
This is a developing weather story. South Jersey NewsBeat will continue monitoring National Weather Service forecasts and provide updates as the storm's potential impact on Atlantic and Cape May counties becomes clearer.
