A section of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will collide with the lunar surface on Wednesday, August 5, 2026, according to scientists tracking the debris.
The impact is anticipated to occur at approximately 2:35 a.m. Eastern Time, with the rocket fragment traveling at velocities surpassing 5,000 miles per hour, based on analysis conducted by Bill Gray, who develops software designed to monitor objects in space. The debris originates from the upper stage of the rocket and measures roughly the height of a five-story building.
This particular rocket component was part of the Falcon 9 launch that transported two lunar landers and scientific instruments toward the moon in January 2025. The spacecraft lifted off from pad 39A at the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida, on Wednesday, January 15, 2025.
Gray's projections indicate the fragment will strike a sunlit portion of the moon visible from Earth, specifically in the northwestern region near the Einstein Crater. The collision is expected to produce a crater measuring at least 17 meters in diameter.
According to the Associated Press, SpaceX did not plan for the defunct rocket stage to impact the moon. The company has not responded to requests for comment from NPR.
NASA Orbiter to Document Impact
Brent Garry, a project scientist for the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, explained that the orbiter will survey the region both before and after the collision to assess surface changes.
"After the impact we might have a little bit more knowledge of where it is. We can do some additional targeting about a week after the impact and get some targeting over where the site is," Garry told NPR during a June discussion about the upcoming impact hosted by NASA's Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute.
Researchers caution that the impact itself may not be directly observable. Even a dust plume generated by the collision could prove difficult for professional telescopes to detect.
Viewing Challenges and Opportunities
Gray noted on his website that material ejected by the impact might form a visible plume against the dark lunar background once debris clears the moon's surface. "As with much in science, the answer is 'we don't know; let's find out,'" he wrote. "Maybe we'll see rocks ejected from the crater."
While observation presents technical challenges, some scientists believe sensitive telescopes could capture the event. Ben Fernando, postdoctoral fellow and researcher at Los Alamos National Laboratory, emphasized the rarity of such opportunities during the NASA discussion.
"Given these are so rare, I would encourage people who are interested and aware of the risks to take a look," Fernando told NPR. "To be clear, this is not something that you're going to see by pointing a pair of binoculars at the moon, but if you have the right equipment and the right time…why not take a look?"
The collision offers scientists a valuable chance to study lunar impact dynamics and surface composition, providing insights that could inform future space exploration efforts.
