A federal investigation has ensnared a member of President Trump's inner circle, marking the first time a White House employee has faced scrutiny for allegedly exploiting insider access to profit on prediction betting markets.
Gabriel Perez, who has operated the president's teleprompter since 2016, is currently in settlement negotiations with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over allegations that he made nearly $100,000 through strategic bets on Kalshi, a prediction market platform. The investigation centers on what are known as "mention markets," where participants wager on specific words or phrases a public figure will use during speeches and appearances.
The alleged scheme came to light when Kalshi's internal surveillance systems identified betting patterns that deviated from normal user behavior. When company investigators examined the accounts in question, they discovered the bettor was a federal employee with direct access to the president's prepared remarks before they were delivered publicly.
Robert DeNault, who heads enforcement at Kalshi, confirmed the company's role in exposing the activity. "Our surveillance team promptly flagged and referred these trades to the CFTC after an exchange investigation. We have been assisting regulators on this matter and provided evidence we collected, as we do in any referral," DeNault told NPR.
Kalshi has frozen approximately $90,000 in profits attributed to Perez and permanently banned him from the platform, according to sources familiar with the investigation who were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly. Perez did not respond to requests for comment.
The scale of activity on these markets is substantial. Ahead of President Trump's scheduled address to the nation on Thursday, July 16, traders had already wagered more than $800,000 on whether the president would use specific terms including "Hormuz," "rigged election," or "fake news" during his remarks.
The president's speaking style, characterized by frequent digressions and unpredictable topic shifts, creates particularly volatile trading conditions on mention markets. Some dedicated traders have reportedly installed television antennas to gain split-second advantages during live broadcasts, attempting to predict which subjects the president might address next.
Prediction markets have experienced explosive growth in recent months, allowing participants to bet on outcomes ranging from election results to global policy decisions. The expansion has been accompanied by multiple high-profile cases of alleged insider trading and market manipulation.
White House staff received explicit warnings about such activity in March, when a memo circulated cautioning against using nonpublic government information to place bets on Kalshi or its primary competitor, Polymarket. The memo, which NPR reviewed, stated that it constitutes a criminal offense for anyone inside the White House to buy or sell on these platforms using privileged information. The document emphasized that misusing government information "is a very serious offence and will not be tolerated."
Using nonpublic information to profit or manipulate markets on Kalshi violates the platform's terms of service and could potentially trigger criminal prosecution for wire fraud, commodities fraud, and money laundering. It remains unclear whether the Department of Justice is examining the Perez case for potential criminal charges.
The Perez investigation is part of a broader pattern of enforcement actions targeting prediction market abuse. In April, federal prosecutors charged a United States Army special forces soldier with making $400,000 on Polymarket by betting on advance knowledge of the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
The following month, authorities charged a Google software engineer with using confidential company information to earn $1.2 million on Polymarket through bets on Google search trends.
Additional investigations are ongoing, including one involving former Republican congressman George Santos. Investigators allege Santos artificially inflated a Kalshi market by publicly claiming he would attend President Trump's 2026 State of the Union address, then profited by betting "no" when he failed to appear.
The case highlights growing concerns about the intersection of government access and speculative betting markets, as regulators work to establish boundaries for an industry that has rapidly outpaced existing oversight frameworks.
